{"id":11415,"date":"2022-04-16T05:52:51","date_gmt":"2022-04-16T15:52:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thefilipinochronicle.com\/backup\/?p=11415"},"modified":"2022-04-17T22:31:14","modified_gmt":"2022-04-18T08:31:14","slug":"my-crystal-ball-for-the-2022-presidential-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thefilipinochronicle.com\/backup\/2022\/04\/16\/my-crystal-ball-for-the-2022-presidential-election\/","title":{"rendered":"My crystal ball for the 2022 presidential election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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by Perry Diaz

<\/em>With three weeks left to Election Day, the campaign season in the Philippines is now in the homestretch. From here onward, every day counts.

While the five remaining and active presidential candidates \u2013 Bongbong Marcos Jr., Leni Robredo, Isko Moreno, Manny Pacquiao, and Ping Lacson \u2013 are busy crisscrossing the archipelago courting voters, many of whom are still undecided who to vote for on May 9, 2022, the bandwagons of Robredo and Marcos Jr. are gathering supporters in all regions.

But between the two candidates, Robredo appears to be gaining momentum, particularly among young voters, many of whom are voting for the first time.

Driven \u2013 and inspired \u2013 by idealism and good governance, young voters are overwhelmingly supportive of Robredo whose campaign theme has resonated well with them.

Everywhere the Leni-Kiko campaigns go, tens of thousands of enthusiastic young people come out shouting \u201cLeni! Leni!…\u201d And a lot of them wear pink, Leni\u2019s color.

It is interesting to note that some groups are supporting Leni in tandem with Sara Duterte. They call themselves RoSa, short for Robredo-Sara Duterte. Coincidentally, Rosa means pink in Spanish (again, Leni\u2019s color).

Another group calls themselves LeTi, short for Leni and Tito Sotto, Lacson\u2019s vice-presidential running mate.

But while Robredo and Marcos Jr. are locked in a battle for survival, the other three presidential candidates are not giving up.

Recently, presidential contender Lacson was offended when vice presidential candidate Lito Atienza, the running mate of presidential candidate Pacquiao, said that he was considering backing out of the race and was hoping Lacson would also quit.

Well, being near the tail end of the pack, it might be wise for Lacson to reconsider his candidacy and get behind Bongbong or Leni.

The same is true for Pacquiao, who is just a tad behind Lacson. But Pacquiao said that he would withdraw from the race if he gets an \u201cinstruction\u201d from God to drop his bid.

When asked what sign he would seek from God regarding his candidacy, Pacquiao said there were times he dreamed about his defeats in boxing when he was still a professional boxer.

\u201cI shared these things to some people before the fight, and what I dreamed about was what exactly happened during the fight,\u201d he said.Survey results<\/strong>Let\u2019s take a look at the results of the latest surveys: Marcos 49.3%, Robredo 21.3%, Moreno 8.8%, Lacson 2.9%, and Pacquiao 2.8%.

Isn\u2019t Pacquaio\u2019s poor approval rating a \u201csign from God\u201d that his crusade isn\u2019t going anywhere? But like in boxing,\u00a0there are times when the difficulties appear too great and we just throw in the towel. Perhaps, it\u2019s time for Pacquiao to\u00a0throw in the towel and bow out gracefully.If I were to put my money on who\u2019s going to win, I\u2019d put it on Robredo.

As you can see, Marcos had a 60% approval rating in February and Robredo had 16%.\u00a0Marcos dropped by 10.7% while Robredo increased by 5.3%.\u00a0The rest basically remained unchanged.But looking at the people who attended the candidates\u2019 campaign rallies, Robredo drew the largest turnout.\u00a0She also has been bagging political endorsements from governors, congressmen, mayors, and local officials.

In other words, Robredo\u2019s bandwagon is attracting a lot of enthusiastic supporters. More than 80 local government officials from several provinces nationwide released a statement endorsing Leni, citing her track record of public service.In the three provinces of Samar, 43 out of 47 mayors endorsed Leni. But what surprised a lot of pundits is Leni\u2019s strong showing in Duterte bailiwicks, with two Davao governors \u2013 Davao del Norte\u2019s\u00a0Edwin Jubahib and Davao del Sur\u2019s Marc Douglas Cagas IV \u2013 and Congressman Pantaleon Alvarez throwing their support for Leni.

This is a very significant win for Leni because Mindanao is the second largest island in the Philippines. Indeed, Leni appears to have cracked the fabled \u201cSolid South\u201d of the Duterte clan.

Leni has shown the ability to mobilize ground support in the Visayas, Mindanao, and Metro Manila. Even in Ilocandia, Leni was able to attract thousands of supporters in Cagayan and Isabela. In Echague, Isabela, 10,000 kakampinks showed up chanting \u201cAwan ti Solid North! (There is no Solid North!).

Lots of baggage<\/strong>
On the other hand, Bongbong is inundated with issues, many of which can be traced back to Marcos Sr.\u2019s dictatorial martial law regime and corrupt government.

But the biggest issue is the unpaid tax assessment against the Marcos family, which amounts to P203 billion. Marcos Jr. claims that the tax liability is still pending in court \u2013 a statement rejected by presidential candidate Isko Moreno as \u201call lies,\u201d who brought the issue just two weeks ago.However, Ernesto Ramel, chairman of Moreno\u2019s Aksyon Demokratiko, reiterated that the Supreme Court affirmed in 1997 a Court of Appeals ruling that declared the Marcoses\u2019 estate to have a tax deficiency of P23 billion but ballooned from P23 billion to P203 billion due to interests and penalties 20 years later.

In 1999, the Supreme Court had determined that the judgment ordering the Marcos heirs to pay the taxes was \u201cfinal, executory, and unappealable.\u201d\u201cIf Marcos Jr. wins the presidency,\u201d Ramel said, \u201cthe Filipino people’s P203B will surely disappear like a bubble.\u00a0\u00a0It is evident in your actions, words, lies, and excuses. Enough is enough Atty. Vic Rodriguez and Marcos Jr.\u00a0\u00a0Give the money to the Filipinos.\u201d

The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) confirmed that it sent to the Marcos family in December 2021, a written demand to settle their estate tax liabilities. But the Marcos family refused to pay the estate tax liabilities, which has become a major campaign issue.

With the election barely a month away, the P203-billion tax liability is causing a lot of flak from the other candidates, who are now using the tax liability as the number one issue.\u00a0And no matter how the Marcos camp defends their stand, the issue is spreading like forest fire.

Marcos Jr.\u2019s educational attainment is questionable. Marcos Jr. claimed that he graduated from Oxford University and earned a degree.

But in October 2021, Oxford University confirmed that he failed to complete his degree and did not graduate. Yet in spite of Oxford\u2019s denial, Marcos Jr. insisted that he completed his degree.

Momentum<\/strong>
Like they say, surveys might not be reliable, but turnouts don\u2019t lie. It\u2019s a living manifestation of popular support.

At the Leni-Kiko grand rally in Pasig City on March 20, around 130,000 \u201ckakampinks\u201d \u2013 a portmanteau that combines \u201ckakampi\u201d (partner) and \u201cpink\u201d (Leni\u2019s campaign color) \u2013 attended the grand rally, the largest assembly of Leni\u2019s supporters.\u00a0A few days later, 80,000 kakampinks attended the Leni-Kiko grand rally in Bohol.\u00a0A day later, 50,000 kakampinks showed up in Tarlac City.

Let\u2019s face it, as in previous Philippine elections, the early frontrunners tripped over some issues that torpedoed their candidacies. It happened to Fernando Poe Jr. in 2004, Manny Villar in 2010, Grace Poe in 2016 and Jejomar Binay in 2016, who both lost to Rodrigo Duterte.

While I find it irrelevant to discuss the issues that befell their candidacies (they\u2019re fait accompli), Filipino voters do not like electing controversial candidates. And once they lose their confidence in a candidate, you might as well kiss them good-bye.With numerous controversial issues that haunt Bongbong, would it be fair to say that he\u2019s lost the confidence of the majority of the Filipino people?

While people may have forgiven the sins of the father, they will never forget the things that the late dictator did.\u00a0And for Bongbong to not apologize for his father\u2019s atrocious regime, claiming that his father did not do anything wrong \u2013 he even called it the \u201cgolden era\u201d \u2013 is an insult to the people\u2019s intelligence.

Bongbong\u2019s bias foretells how his presidency would mirror his father\u2019s 20-year bloody rule that had bankrupted the Philippine economy, which led to the People Power Revolution of 1986.My crystal ball for 2022 clearly shows that Bongbong will lose in a landslide.

PERRY DIAZ\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>is a writer, columnist and journalist who has been published in more than a dozen Filipino newspapers in five countries.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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