Who Will Likely Be The Next President Of The Philippines?

by Atty. Emmanuel S. Tipon

Sarah Duterte Carpio has already announced that she is running for President of the Philippines. She also declared that she has decided on who will be her running mate. The speculation is that it will be Senator Imee Marcos Manotoc. Imee appears to be at odds with her brother, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. Their latest public squabble was when Imee declared that her brother is taking prohibited drugs, implying that it has affected his decision-making process.

President Marcos wants to determine who his successor will be. There are those who believe that it should be a member of the Marcos family. Congressman Sandro Marcos of the First District of Ilocos Norte and Majority Leader is under age for a president. He was born on March 7, 1994. He will be 34 on the next presidential election scheduled for May 8, 2028. One must be 40 years old on the day of the election to qualify. Art. VII, Sec. 4. Philippine Constitution 1987. It is too late to have a constitutional convention and ratification in a plebiscite to change the minimum age for a president. Then there is no guarantee that the people will vote to ratify such an amendment that is clearly designed to fit a particular person.

How about President Marcos wife Louise (Liza) Araneta Marcos? She is attractive. She is a lawyer. She has been a professor of law. When she applied to teach at the College of Law of the Northwestern University in Laoag City where I was the Dean, while her husband, BBM (Bong Bong Marcos) was Governor of Ilocos Norte, I asked her why not just relax and enjoy life. She said that she wanted to do something to help the young people. She was the most effective teacher at the school. She had a lesson plan for the entire course. She is very articulate.

There is also BBM’s younger sister Irene Romualdez Marcos Araneta. Irene studied in England like her siblings. She was born on September 16, 1960. She participated during the campaign rallies of BBM. She has not held elective office but that is not a pre-qualification for the presidency. Look at Maria Corazon Sumulong Cojuangco Aquino who served as president from February 25, 1986-June 30, 1992 and her son Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino, III (PNoy) who served as President from 2010-2016. The Marcos name, financial resources, political power, and clean record can carry her to victory.

After they were forced to leave the Philippines in 1986, Irene and her husband Greggy Araneta sojourned in California. I used to visit them. When Cory Aquino came to San Francisco, I suggested that we greet her with a banner with the words “Cory Communist Coddler” to be pulled by a low flying airplane at noon. However, the airplane was pulling a sign saying “Cory Communist Cuddler”. I called up their home and Irene answered. I told her about the mix up in the signs. “That’s even better,” she responded.

If it is Liza or Irene for President, who would be the running mate? That can be decided later. But definitely nobody who would be tempted to assassinate her.

Can Sara Survive The Impeachment?

There are at least two remaining impeachment complaints against Sara. The first one was thrown out for having been filed too early. The second complaint was withdrawn.

The third complaint has six grounds for impeachment – misused 500 million pesos in confidential funds, of the Office of the Vice President, 112.5 million pesos of the Department of Education when she was its head. She is also alleged to have “bribed” department officials. She is alleged to have hired an assassin to kill the President, the First Lady, and former House Speaker Romualdez if she should be killed. She is also alleged to have committed sedition by trying to destabilize the President.

The fourth complaint alleged that Sara had amassed wealth beyond her earnings and failed to disclose all assets in her Statement of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth (SALN).

The third and fourth impeachment complaints against her were declared “sufficient in substance” by the justice committee of the House of Representatives with one dissent. They required Sara to formally respond.

After Sara responds, the House of Representatives will hold hearings to hear the evidence and the witnesses.

“This is not a cakewalk. This is not easy,” said opposition Liberal Party Rep. Edgar Erice.

Rep. Joel Chua said that Sara’s remarks about hiring an assassin did not contain “the essential elements of an indictable offense”. There is “no identification of an assassin…no overt acts towards execution, defined consideration, and no operational step taken beyond speech.”

With respect to Sara’s SALN violations and ill-gotten wealth, Congressman Rufus Rodriguez said that the complainants did not submit any of Sara’s bank records.

Erice said that it would be difficult for the endorsers of the two complaints to produce, without a court order, more evidence, such as bank records, to trace the origin of Sara’s wealth.

However, it is anticipated by Erice that there will be more than 1/3 votes of the House to impeach Sara and send the case to the Senate for trial.

Erice reportedly warned that if the evidence against Sara is weak, the Senate would have “no incentive” to convict Sara during the trial, since many of the senator judges will be looking at their reelection bid in 2028. “If the vice president is not convicted by the Senate, she will get stronger,” added Erice.