Kudos to President Joe Biden for allowing a new generation of leadership to step in with his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden has accomplished much for our nation. We will remember his guidance through one of the most turbulent times in modern American history following the Jan. 6 insurrection, the peak of COVID-19 and its aftermath. Our nation owes him immense gratitude and we join the nation in thanking Biden for his decades of service.
With the help of Biden and key endorsements, Vice President Kamala Harris has essentially secured the Democratic Party’s nomination and is close to fully uniting the Democrats as the factions were in 2020. So where are we now? What’s next for Harris?
The race to win over independents
After the normalization and return of a united Democratic Party (still more work to be done here), Kamala must now seek to win over independents and disaffected Republicans unhappy with MAGA. Like in previous years, independent voters are positioned to decide the outcome of the 2024 election.
If you look at the two last presidential election cycles, we see how independents weighed heavily on both outcomes. In 2020 and 2016, the candidate who won the presidential election garnered the larger share of independent voters’ support. Polls show Biden secured 54% of independents compared to Trump’s 41% in 2020, and the former president won 46% against Hillary Clinton’s 42% in 2016.
Traditional Democrats Are Likely to go back to Dem party
When Biden was still in the race, the composition of independents in this election cycle was somewhat unique from previous years, according to most data. A large percentage of young voters who felt disenfranchised and angry about the Israel-Hamas war (unhappy with Biden’s massive aid militarily) will likely return to the Democratic Party. A huge swathe who found Biden mentally unfit and thinking about voting independent or not show up to vote at all – will likely return to the Democratic Party.
Data already shows this is happening among young voters and independents. According to a NYT-Sienna poll, Kamala had spiked 16 percentage points from Biden’s poll numbers among young voters and 8 percentage points up among independents in just a few days – and it’s likely that these numbers will increase for Harris among both demographics. Why? Historical voting patterns show younger voters tend to vote Democratic by a large margin. And independent voters tend to vote for the more centrist candidate. Kamala is clearly less extremist than Trump.
Race essentially a tie at this point
At the moment despite Kamala’s early surge, Trump still has a slight edge in battleground states but within the margin of error in some states. But Kamala has taken the lead in the national polls by 2 percentage points, again, within the margin of error.
Win on multiple issues and you win the independent vote
Clearly, independents tend not to be ideological purists. Where they end up each election usually is on the side of the candidate who can best appeal to them on multiple issues. For example, those independents who support Trump are deeply concerned about the economy and illegal immigration, but they also have strong reservations of him on reproductive rights. They see him better on the first two issues over others.
What Kamala must do to win independent votes?
First to quell concerns over the Middle East war – a group that’s still passionate with some supporters leaning to vote for Dr. Jill Stein or Dr. Cornel West — Kamala must signal that her candidacy will be stronger in attempting to put an end to the war and finding long-lasting solutions to the Israel-Palestinian situation. This race will be closely contested, and a third-party sway of 3-4% in battleground states could determine winning or losing. The RFK Jr. effect is still unpredictable to most politicos.
Second, Kamala needs to convince independents that she will tackle inflation more aggressively while at the same time continue to strengthen the economy. The fact is the economy is strong, but it’s not looking that way for many because of high inflation. And most voters lump the two – economy and inflation – together and do not see the difference between them. The strongest, most compelling piece of legislation to combat inflation is to propose raising the federal minimum wage, which hasn’t been discussed, in part, due to the Democratic party’s increasing reliance on big donors from billionaires of giant corporations, who do not want to see any wage increase.
Third, the vice president who was tasked to oversee illegal immigration on behalf of Biden, must somehow convince independents that she will be stronger in border enforcement. She must propose new asylum restrictions and quotas, new processing and hearings of legitimate cases and quick resolution of illegitimate cases. Catch and release must end, which has been a major source of illegal immigration. A great number of asylum-seekers just do not show up for their cases in immigration court.
Fourth, Kamala must continue to do what Biden did right — hammering the threat of democracy with a Trump presidency and promising to protect and enhance reproductive rights.
Realistically, Kamala will have a PR struggle to reverse independents’ perception of her on illegal immigration so she must be overwhelmingly convincing on the other major issues. Winning on two or three of these major issues will be the ticket to the White House. Make no mistake, while there is newfound energy among Democrats, beating Trump will be a formidable task. There’s hard work ahead for both candidates. The good news for Americans is the race is now realistically competitive.
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