by Edwin Quinabo
With just over two weeks until the Nov. 5th General Election, professional pollsters and betmakers show there’s no clear favorite to who will occupy the White House. The fate of the 47th U.S. president will ride on this year’s seven swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin – together worth 93 Electoral College Votes.
Pollsters have Harris up by a slim majority and Betmakers have Trump leading
The latest WSJ’s poll (Sept. 28-Oct 8) shows Vice President Kamala Harris with a narrow majority in the Electoral College over former President Donald Trump. Harris is up 2 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, Trump up 6 points in Nevada and 1 in Pennsylvania, and the two tied in North Carolina and Wisconsin.
According to the latest from RealClearPolitics bookmakers, Trump now has a 51.3% chance to Harris’ 47.5% at winning next month’s election. Trump is outpacing Harris in other betmakers too. Betsson, Bovada, Bwin and PointsBet all have Trump as a 52-48 favorite. Polymarket gives Trump even better odds, 51-44.
Arguably the most comprehensive scientific poll is ABC 538, a polling aggregation of multiple leading polls like YouGov, the New York Times/Siena College, CBS News, RMG Research, and others, using sabermetric to balance out the polls with comparative demographic data. In that poll, Harris is up 1 percentage point in Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, Trump leads 1 percentage point in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Using a 1,000-simulation model, ABC 538 predicts Harris wins 53 times out of 100 and Trump wins 47 times out of 100.
Anything short of some unforeseen political quake or a clear disaster waiting to happen like should the U.S. engage in a direct war with Iran before the election, the neck-and-neck result in this late stage suggests a razor-thin margin separating the two will playout the day of election.
Harris and Trump: strengths, weaknesses, winning strategy
HARRIS. Politicos say Harris, as a first woman, Black and South Asian vice president, has diverse appeal as her foundational strength, receiving energized support among minorities and women that typically back Democratic party presidential candidates. But her ethnic background could tilt further in her favor among minority demographic groups this time around, even as Harris downplays identity politics as a calculus to not alienate the huge white male electorate. The abortion debate will also work heavily in Harris’ favor among women this election, politicos say.
Unlike former president Barack Obama who roused similar demographic fervor, critics say Harris’ weakness is articulating clearly her proposed policies, how to accomplish them or her flip-flop on a range of issues. This inability to communicate effectively – that Obama masterfully perfected and someone who she seeks to follow as a historic glass-ceiling breaker — makes her vulnerable to critiques as an ineffective leader with little to no plans.
Harris’ winning strategy is to find the optimal balance to get the two factions within the Democratic Party to support her. To date, analysts say she’s been leaning on the side with the Democratic centrists, pro-corporatocracy, pro-donors disproportionately by not introducing bold legislations that would have widespread appeal among the pro-workers liberal left.
The only major concession progressives say she has given them is her picking Tim Waltz as her vice-presidential running mate. A weak demographic in her corner, seniors, Harris threw out a last-minute hook to reel them in with her Medicare at Home plan that aims to have Medicare pay for home services. Politicos say in a close race, which it is, Harris must also need to change course on the ongoing wars, which she has repeatedly given empty lip service to and refused to pivot away from Biden.
TRUMP. Right-wing pundits point to Trump’s populist messaging, fighting spirit and PR spins as his main strengths. Trump served as president and is the ultimate insider but presents himself as the persecuted outsider fighting for “the average Joe” Americans’ best interests. He’s won on populism in 2016 and seeks to do it again with that strategy. His “fighter” persona was amplified after surviving two assassination attempts; and he’s turned rather convincingly in a PR spin to MAGA, his legal woes and criminal conviction into a victimhood narrative that he’s a wrongful target of the “deep state.”
Politicos say Trump’s greatest weakness is his polarization of the American electorate which undermines any chances of broad multi-sectoral appeal. He’s banking on his loyal base and independents discouraged by the current state of the country – high inflation and a pores border — to overlook his past political and personal transgressions.
A winning strategy for Trump could be is to turn the fearmongering used against him as a possible dictator to fearmongering that Harris, an extension of Biden, would lead the country to WW3. Which fear is greater? That’s a tough call, many Americans are debating. But the danger to this strategy – a ploy he’s already used in his closing statement in the first presential debate warning of an impending war – is that the American public are fatigued with Trump’s never-ending fearmongering from so-called murderous invaders at the southern border to pet-eaters in the suburbs. The Trump who cried wolf could no longer be believable even in this stark and valid threat. Rather any fearmongering from him is simply viewed as chaotic from a man that chaos seems to follow him his entire life.
For this special presidential election cover story, the Hawaii Filipino Chronicle, asked people in our Filipino community representing various ages and socioeconomic backgrounds who they plan to vote for, which top issues led them to their decision-making and their political party affiliation. Comments have been edited for space, clarity and facts.
THE ECONOMY, INFLATION, HIGH COST OF LIVING – FILIPINO RESPONDENTS TOP CONCERN
Polls show Americans have greater confidence in Trump over Harris in dealing with the economy and inflation. Even as the economy shows strong indicators of growth and low unemployment, the high cost of living and rise in essentials eclipses any “euphoria” that some Americans are enjoying. Inflation (the rate of rising or falling prices, not actual prices themselves) has slowed down due to the Federal Reserve raising the interest rates, but the high prices of a rapidly growing economy since post-pandemic has yet to stabilize. A majority of Filipino respondents in this article had the economy, inflation and the high cost of living as their top concern this election.
Harris’s plan to tame inflation includes the first-ever federal ban on price gouging on food and groceries, which her campaign says aims to stop big corporations from unfairly exploiting consumers while generating excessive corporate profits.
Economies say besides a desire for higher profits by corporations, the price of goods are also determined by supply chains and a lack of industry competition.
Trump said his focus on increasing the U.S. energy production would help to combat inflation. The idea is cheaper energy will have a mushrooming effect on the price of all goods.
Klem Unciano, Waipahu, businessman, 73, will be voting for Trump. He remarks the difference in cost of living has dramatically increased the past four years which he says it was better under Trump. “The price of everything is up. If you go to work and your company is far away from your house, you can tell the difference in gasoline prices. It used to be filling up my full tank would last for one week. Now, it only lasts for four days. Overall, expenses for a family of four persons are higher, remarkably higher,” Unciano said.
Gina Gerolaga, Ewa Beach, manager of Kona Mountain Coffee, said “The economy was in much better shape under Trump. The daily cost of living today compared to Trump’s administration is significant. Look at your gas expenses, grocery bills, look at the cost of eating out, almost everything has gone up.”
Ray Romero, M.D., Kapolei, is a Republican and supports their platform and a Trump second term. He says prices are sky high and that people can no longer survive with the high cost of living.
Rowena Salvador, Moanalua, retired, expressed high in her priorities stabilizing inflation and the price of goods. She is a Democrat who supports Harris. “People are hurting and struggling financially. Trump talks about improving the economy but he hasn’t addressed inflation much in the way of solutions but only identifies it as a problem. The two, economy and inflation, are related but separate. When people complain about the high cost of goods, they should be supporting Harris who has talked about working on inflation and price gouging. Trump mentions inflation but has no plan to get it down.”
Michael Berueda, registered land surveyor in Hawaii, 67, will support Harris who has attributed in part high inflation to corporate greed. This resounded with Berueda. “I’m not an economist, although my understanding is that it is ‘supply and demand’ that drives prices. We are in an age where the investors’ [or corporations’] goal is to maximize large profit margins, which drives the consumer deeper [in debt] and makes them poorer, and they lose the opportunity to advance financially. I want economists to look into and recommend profit caps agreeable with the investors and the government that they can implement.”
Glory Jane Yorke, PA-Family Practice, Las Vegas, Nevada, 44 years old, said “I would like Harris to invest in building resilient food supply chains and revitalize competition in food distribution and groceries. A competitive marketplace means lower costs for consumers and in addition to that it will give small businesses, grocers, and growers the resources to compete, injecting competition back into our food markets and lowering costs for Americans. I also suggest that she follow-up in Congress to pass the first-ever federal ban on price gouging.”
Gregorio Bonilla, Kalihi, retired farmer, 84, supports Harris. On inflation, he said, “We need to break up monopolies, prevent mergers that would increase prices and get rid of junk fees.” On the economy, he says, “the wealth gap, started by Reagan’s deceitful and failed trickle-down policies, and exacerbated by the three Republican presidents after him – has to be shrunk as a moral and economic priority, so that all Americans have hope for a decent life.”
Gregorio said he’s a Democrat because “Democrats prove over and over that they are trying to improve the lives of Americans and seek real solutions to our problems. Republicans say they are fiscally responsible and create trillion-dollar deficits. They claim to be tax cutters but create wealth gaps that make it harder for ordinary Americans to better their conditions and concentrate wealth in those who don’t need all the extra money.”
AFFORDABLE HOUSING AND IMMIGRATION
Filipino respondents felt affordable housing and immigration as the next top concerns this election. Polls show Americans have greater confidence in Harris on affordable housing while they believe Trump would be better on immigration.
Affordable Housing. Harris has a four-year plan to lower housing costs, including $25,000 in down payment assistance for qualified first-time homeowners and actions aimed at spurring the construction of new housing, including tax incentives for building starter homes.
Trump wants to ban undocumented immigrants from getting mortgages, a move he says would cool the housing market. Another Trump plan involves loosening zoning laws, which he blames for slowing down construction and inflating costs. He argues that environmental regulations and complex permitting processes are holding builders back.
Harris supporter Berueda, who has a bachelor’s degree in Civil and Geodetic Engineering, said, “these days ‘affordable’ is not really affordable for everyone. The housing cost is too high that more citizens give up on the idea of having their own home, and instead rent or worse become homeless. I would like to see affordable housing with minimum [qualifying] requirements and the market not be so profit-driven. Small house units may be a good example of affordable housing, coupled with proper planning and implementation that benefit both the consumer and the investor.”
Harris supporter Yorke said, “The government should build more affordable houses and apartments and offer first time buyers an incentive like lower down payments or if there’s a possibility that the government can assist them even a small amount to help them. For low-income families who don’t have any alternative but to rent an apartment or a house, sometimes the rents are too high. I suggest government should look into lowering costs by taking on ‘abusive’ corporate landlords. One other way of helping people is for the government to invest in promoting small businesses that drive growth, innovation and jobs. If you have a good paying job, it’s most likely that your chance of buying a house is better.”
Immigration. Harris said she would bring back the bipartisan Border Bill that was introduced earlier this year but failed to even get a hearing in Congress. That bill, which was supported by Biden, puts $20 billion toward new security measures at the southern border and imposes new restrictions toward asylum seekers and migrants without offering much to pro-immigrant groups that call for improvements to processing legal immigration. Her tougher stance on immigration also includes millions of dollars to fund a southern border wall that she in the past criticized and called “un-American.”
Trump also focuses on beefing up border security and personnel. He wants to launch a massive deportation plan to detain and deport 3 to 15 million undocumented immigrants. It’s uncertain how the half a million DACA residents who have legal permits to stay in the country would be affected by Trump’s deportation plan.
Trump supporter Unciano gripes about the long processing times of immigrants who go through legal channels compared to asylum seekers who are granted entry immediately while they wait in the U.S for their asylum case to be heard. “Why is it that when we petition our immediate families, it could take years for a wife and sometimes 10-20 years for siblings even with full supporting papers.” Unciano said he used to be a Democrat but switched to the Republican party. He’s an immigrant, has been in the country as a U.S. citizen for over 20 years.
Trump backer Gerolaga expressed concern over the large number of illegal immigrants and the possible benefits they receive. She too is an immigrant who’s been living in the U.S. for over 20 years and is a U.S. citizen. She is a Republican.
Harris supporter Worley said, “We need comprehensive immigration reform to hasten processing of green card holders. Trump’s past proposal to replace family-based immigration with merit-based immigration will hurt our communities. He also wanted to get rid of the legal status of birthright citizenship. This is upending the entire system. Then how would citizenship be conferred? When Americans say they’re concerned about immigration, it’s not only about border security and illegals that people automatically think. We also mean fixing the broken legal immigration system that needs long overdue updating.”
END TO WARS AND LESS MONEY FOR FOREIGN MILITARY AID
According to the WSJ poll, Trump leads Harris 50% to 39% on who is best able to handle Russia’s war in Ukraine; and he has a 48% to 33% lead over Harris on who is better suited to handle the Israel-Hamas war.
Trump has expressed a desire to end the war in Ukraine but allow Israel to take an even more aggressive approach to wrap up the war in the Middle East. Kamala has vowed to continue unconditional support for Israel like Biden and to fully back Ukraine against Russia.
Harris supporter Salvador said, “We are spending too much money on these wars that do not benefit Americans. We have critical domestic issues to take care of first like strengthening Medicare and Social Security and upgrading our infrastructure.” Salvador is a Democrat.
Erlinda Worley, Manoa, retired government worker, said she is voting for Jill Stein this election. Worley voted Democrat since turning 18 years old and this will be her first time to vote third party. “I cannot vote in good conscience for Kamala or Trump because they both indicated a desire to stand by Israel unconditionally even as a genocide is occurring. It breaks my heart to see the killings of tens of thousands of innocents. It is immoral and we should have an immediate arms embargo. We need a leader to be able to tell Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop and accept a ceasefire or we will stop sending weapons. I hold no illusions that Stein will win. But a moral message must be sent that some Americans do not approve what the U.S. is doing in supporting Israel’s genocide.”
Trump supporter Gerolaga said, “Our money should be spent on our U.S. citizens. Why are we not fixing our internal issues, homelessness, hurricane disaster victims? We give so much to Ukraine and other countries and now FEMA is in financial trouble. We need to fund our own peoples’ needs before we give billions away to other countries.”
PRESERVATION OF DEMOCRACY
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in September found that 58% of respondents in a two-day poll said Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement is threatening America’s democratic foundations. One of the principal arguments Democrats have been making is that if Trump is elected to a second term, Trump would be a threat to democracy. They cite as possible indications of this happening: Trump said himself he wanted to be a dictator for one day if reelected, he sent a mob to the Capitol on January 6, 2021, he is friendly with other world strongmen like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, and many of his former staffers were involved in creating Project 2025. Republicans are mostly unfazed over threats of a future Trump dictatorship.
Raymund Liongson, Ewa Beach; retired professor/civil rights advocate; 69, said he will vote for Harris. “The preservation of freedom and democracy is the existential and most important issue in this coming election. It is more than a Harris vs Trump choice. It is whether we will continue to have America as a free country under the rule of just laws or a repressed nation ruled by a narcissistic, xenophobic, and misogynistic dictator. One candidate presents a pro-people, pro-working-class agenda while another promises to be a dictator on Day One. And as far as I know, no dictator has ever given up absolute power on Day Two.” Liongson said he is a Democrat but would not support anyone in the Blue Party who would not meet the three criteria of pro-democracy, decency and good character, and competence.
Salvador said, “Trump is a threat to democracy. If he wins, he will be prepared to implement changes that will challenge our institution. We will have constitutional crisis after another. Trump disavows association with Project 2025 but many of his former staff and appointees were involved in that plan that would upend many of our current systems like changing civil service career employees to political appointees. Of course, that means picking people loyal to Trump.”
Other considerations listed
Filipino respondents also listed as other reasons for choosing their presidential candidate to include healthcare, Medicare/Social Security, lower taxation/reign in on government spending, character and competence.
On the two-party system
A majority of respondents said they were satisfied with the two-party system. Two respondents said they would like to see a viable independent party to challenge the Democrat and Republican Party. Currently, there are many small parties across the U.S. with historically the most organized among them are the Libertarian and the Green Party. In other democracies around the world, there are multiple political parties, and multi-coalitions are formed among these parties.
(Chona Montesines-Sonido and Carlota Ader contributed to this article.)
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