Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? Who wins is not a bet of confidence by any stretch just a few weeks before November 5th.
Kamala Harris
Vice president Harris, 55, was riding high the first weeks after replacing a beleaguered and tired Joe Biden. Her campaign did everything right, hauling in record-breaking fundraising and reenergizing the traditional Democratic Party coalition. Kamala’s national and battleground states polling numbers shot up practically overnight from Biden’s nearly two-years of flatlining digits.
But after several lackluster interviews and her resistance to set herself apart from Biden, constantly dodging the question, “What would you do differently from Biden?” — it’s clear Kamala is not the change agent Americans were hoping for, and consequently, her poll numbers plateaued.
Her “I’m with Biden” political strategy may be appealing to the mega donor class that prefers stability and an iron-clad marriage to institutional politics, but it’s certainly lacking vision that financially struggling and young Americans find to be an extension of the status quo. It was never just about Biden’s mental acuity that held up factions within the Democratic party from supporting him. It was “change in direction” – at least in the way of bold legislations — that Americans were and are wanting. But this hasn’t sunk in for Harris who remains in her silo of the well-heeled and powerful establishment Dems and a corporate mainstream media applauding her every move. The parallel to Hilary Clinton’s run is starkly similar.
For better or worse, even though Harris downplays her ethnicity and gender, identity politics appear to be a driving motivational force in her base support. She’s outpacing Trump in the polls among Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, women and the LGBT. And while it shouldn’t be the overarching reason (but it appears to be the case), identity politics is keeping her in the game despite her lack of specificity in her plans that she’s failed to flesh out opportunity after opportunity. What’s also missing is Harris doesn’t have a major centerpiece legislation like Obamacare to invigorate excitement.
Donald Trump
Former president Donald Trump, 78, has a long laundry list of disqualifying arguments that can be made against him. While Harris is the institutional die-hard, Trump could be the rattling force to shake up the nation’s foundational democratic pillars. His promises to use the government to attack his political enemies – that he likened to “vermin” — is just one among many “clear dangers” to democratic norms.
His vow to deport between 3–15 million of undocumented immigrants using the National Guard is destabilizing. It would be the largest deportation operation in American history. The way he would do it is frightening — rounding up longtime U.S. residents without legal papers, confining them to detention camps, and then deporting them.
Trump’s legal woes alone make him unfit to be president again. He faces federal charges over his alleged participation in a scheme to overturn his election loss in 2020 and has already been convicted of felonies for hush-money payments connected to his 2016 presidential campaign.
Disturbing and intimidating to minority populations, Trump is mostly campaigning on “cultural wars” – xenophobia, book bans, anti-wokeness, anti-DEI, etc. — an encore strategy he knows will keep his base intact.
This time around, what could be an indication that Trump is in better standing than in 2020, Trump is not only polling higher than he did among independents, but these independents are also not shy about announcing their commitment to voting for Trump, unlike in the past when a vote for Trump – outside of his extremist loyalists – was kept quiet. There is less taboo than in his past runs associated with Trump’s campaign.
Weighing the two on taxes, the economy and inflation
When it comes to the economy it’s a straightforward Republican vs Democrat model we’ve seen in the past. Trump promises to lower taxes and cut government spending while Harris vows to raise taxes for the wealthy and big companies to pay for wider social safety nets like Medicare and Social Security. The devil is, of course, in the details, for example the threshold of taxable income when an increase or decrease kicks in, percentages and so forth, which would make all the difference than just looking at this old Republican vs Democratic economic model on face value. The big picture has most economists and investment banks like Goldman Sachs saying Harris’ economic plan (that includes tax revenues and spending) would be better than Trump’s.
Trump doesn’t really have a plan to release the nation from the grip of inflation except to boost U.S. energy production. Harris identifies well that inflation is partly a result of corporate greed, price gouging and concentration of industry, but says little in detail on how she would combat inflation.
Both Trump and Harris, economists say, would increase the deficit. Trump’s plan would add $5.8t trillion to it over a decade versus Harris’ $1.2 trillion.
The major cause for alarm is Trump’s proposal of levies 10-20% on all imports and 60% on those from China that economists say will reignite trade wars. These higher tariffs could have a negative supply shock, raise the price on consumer goods and worsen inflation that Americans are already struggling with.
Big picture
Clearly both candidates have degrees of flaws, leadership flaws, policy flaws, campaign strategy flaws. A second Trump presidency is unpredictable and potentially ruinous. Americans should recall the national instability and never-ending crises from impeachments to racial tension during Trump’s presidency. At the same time, it’s highly unlikely that Trump becomes a dictator. He doesn’t have enough years left and his ego compels him to want to be loved by the people. And Americans do not love dictators. Trump just wants to avoid prison time – that’s his real motivation in running again.
Harris is not the break from Biden many have hoped for. But voters who liked Biden (a mentally sharper Biden), that’s what Kamala would deliver, another Biden administration, but as the first woman and Black-Asian president. She’s a safe pick in guaranteeing the continuity of mediocrity in governance. Perhaps, that will be enough for a win, unless a major expansion of war breaks out in the Middle East that’s bound to spark volatility, and potentially hurt Harris in November.
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