After This Week’s Primaries, Here Is Why Trump Has the Advantage Over Biden Going into the General

Prior to this week’s Super Tuesday national primary election, politicos have been relying on soft data in polling to assess this year’s presidential race. After this week’s elections we have hard data on voters’ preferences. What can we infer from both (polls and primaries) at this juncture?

The obvious which was never really a cloud of doubt is that Joe Biden and Donald Trump would be the standard bearers of the two dominant political parties. Barring potential legal proceedings that would prohibit Trump from staying in the race and that Biden decides to push forward with his candidacy despite dismal polling, Americans can expect round two of Trump vs Biden in the General Election.

That we already knew and all previous polls prior to Super Tuesday were correct.

Protest votes, Advantage Trump
The haze in the crystal ball going forward is how many of the protest votes in the primary will fall in line behind the respective candidates. For Trump, the big question mark is, will the more centrist, independent-leaning supporters of Nikki Haley turn out for Trump, jump ship, or sit out in the General. As for Biden based off primary results of “uncommitted voters” – an important factor in battleground states where the margin to victory is razor thin – the big question is, will these voters turn out for Biden, jump ship, or sit out in the General.

Despite the swirling legal battles for Trump, MAGA supporters haven’t wavered since Trump broke into the political sphere. So, Trump already has a guaranteed base. With some states allowing political party crossvoting, the states where Haley performed best, her actual base support is questionable as it’s likely that some centrist independent Democrats cross voted in the primaries. This would mean that protest votes for Haley in the primary are less significant. Advantage Trump.

For Biden, who are these uncommitted voters? A late campaign push starting from the Michigan primary had Americans upset with Biden’s approach to the war in Gaza voting “uncommitted.” Based off battleground states like Michigan, unless Biden does a 180 in the direction of his foreign policy in Gaza, these voters (compared to Trump’s protest votes) more than likely will sit out in the General. Why?

First, many of the uncommitted voters said so in interviews. Second, historically the voting bloc of those opposed to war are passionate about their convictions and are not easily swayed to political forgiveness on this issue. And this war on Gaza is arguably the most polarizing in modern history, especially with it being the first virtual war of our time. Furthermore, there has never been in modern elections a campaign that had voters rally behind a single issue to vote uncommitted, until now. Here, again, advantage goes to Trump, as the uncommitted voters in the primary most likely will remain uncommitted in the General.

Third party factor, Advantage Trump
Besides these question marks on protest voters, two independent party candidates — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Dr. Cornel West — could affect the margin, with RFK Jr.’s campaign in particular, sounding loud alarm bells that could undermine Biden’s candidacy, many politicos are already saying.

RFK JR.  has already qualified to be on key battleground states including Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, and the list is growing. RFK Jr. has even qualified to be on Hawaii’s ballot for the General.  Historians point to two third-party candidates in Ralph Nader and Dr. Jill Stein who likely could have thrown the election to Republicans.

Both of them, Nader and Stein, prior to the General in those respective years were garnering 2-3% (general election results mirrored those polling), but we see RFK Jr. doing far better with a hefty double digit backing, and among young voters, he is leading both Trump and Biden (a historical first in modern elections).  Politicos can agree that RFK Jr.’s backers are siphoning votes from the Democratic party.  Conclusion here, give another advantage to Trump.

Battleground states, Advantage Trump
Trump is leading Biden in seven key battleground state. Trump is besting Biden among registered voters in Arizona (49%-43%), Georgia (49%-43%), Michigan (46%-44%), Nevada (48%-42%), North Carolina (50%-41%), Pennsylvania (49%-43%) and Wisconsin (46%-42%), according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult swing-state voter survey published last week.

Michigan and North Carolina have had large uncommitted protest votes. Other battleground states either have not held their primaries yet as of press time or their state did not have an uncommitted vote option.

We know historically that battleground states are where presidential elections are won or lost. And these numbers in this 2024 election cycle have been steady. This is yet another area that suggests an advantage goes to Trump.

Biden going forward
Besides Biden’s age, which he cannot doing anything about, there remains hope for him to turn things around. But that would mean making dramatic changes and time is running out.

Super Tuesday added hundreds of thousands of voters to the uncommitted movement. Biden cannot afford to cover his ears and ignore the message sent to him that they (Democrats) do not want unconditional support for Israel and are demanding a permanent ceasefire. Foreign policy is historically not a top priority among voters. But in this case this election cycle, it is. And where the margin is razor thin as we are seeing, Biden will need to bring all factions of the Democratic Party back in line.  On this issue, Biden has been stubborn and negligent in hearing Democratic voters’ demands. Biden: turn around this gross failure in foreign policy, and perhaps, that could be a start for you to climb back into the race.