by Edwin Quinabo
The world is waiting with bated breath in how Iran will retaliate after Israel orchestrated the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and the killing of a Hezbollah military commander in Beirut, Lebanon. Haniyeh was in Tehran to attend the new Iranian president’s inauguration when he was killed.
Iran’s vow to retaliate threatens to throw the current conflict into a regional war that could draw in the United States.
Following Haniyeh’s killing, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said it was his country’s “duty” to retaliate. “We consider it our duty to avenge his blood in this bitter and difficult incident that happened in the territory of the Islamic Republic.”
Newly installed Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran would “definitely” respond to Israel in retaliation for the assassination. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is in no way seeking to expand the scope of war and crisis in the region, but this regime [Israel] will definitely receive a response for its crimes and insolence.”
Hamas’ military wing said Haniyeh’s killing will “take the battle to new dimensions and have major repercussions.”
President Joe Biden said the U.S. would “support Israel’s defense against threats,” which would include “new defensive U.S. military deployments.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said officials are working “around the clock” to prevent an escalation. The U.S. has been asking countries that have diplomatic relations with Iran to urge the country not to escalate the conflict, State Department spokesman Matt Miller said
“We’re at a critical moment for the region,” Miller told NBC News, “And it’s important that all parties take steps over the coming days to refrain from escalation and calm tensions. Escalation is in no one’s interest,” he said.
U.S. military presence in the Middle East
While talks of diplomacy continues, the Pentagon said the U.S. was dispatching additional warships capable of intercepting ballistic missiles to the U.S. Central Command and U.S. European Command areas. U.S. warships helped shoot down Iranian drones and missiles during Tehran’s massive attack on Israel in April this year in retaliation for another assassination. On April 1, 2024, Israel conducted an airstrike on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria.
Sent to the region is the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which includes the aircraft carrier, destroyers and other warships. The USS Wasp amphibious assault ship and several other Navy vessels are currently operating in the Mediterranean Sea. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt that was on a short-term deployment to the Middle East. The USS Abraham Lincoln is the fourth U.S. carrier sent to respond to ongoing crises in the Middle East since October.
Potential scope of an expanded war
Besides direct conflict between Iran and Israel. An escalated war could include:
*Iran’s main proxies in the Middle East (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen).
*The U.S. is committed to providing defense for Israel.
*Russia has a Security Mutual Military Aid Agreement with Iran, and both countries have been exchanging military weapons and technology since Russia invaded Ukraine. In a protracted war with Israel, Russia will aid Iran. It may not be immediately, military experts say, but their mutual aid agreement almost guarantees it in a protracted war. The extent of direct or indirect intervention is unclear. Russia’s Secretary of Security Council Sergei Shoigu was in Tehran for strategic talks just days after the Hamas leader’s assassination.
*Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has raised the possibility numerous times that Turkey could enter Israel in support of Palestine. Recently, he said it was a possibility Turkey would enter an expanded war if Israel attacked Lebanon in a full-scale operation.
*China has not offered military support to Iran like Russia has. It’s unclear what role China would play in the event of an expanded conflict. China is an ally of Iran and Iran provides China with multi-millions of barrels of oil annually. China is Iran’s top oil importer. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi condemned the assassination of Haniyeh. “China supports Iran in defending its sovereignty, security and national dignity in accordance with the law, and in its efforts to maintain regional peace and stability, and stands ready to maintain close communication with Iran,” Wang said.
The countries expected to be directly or indirectly involved are among the top military powers globally. Looking at Globalfirepower.com’s power index, ranking the world’s military by strength, here are the ranking of countries mentioned: Iran 14th, Israel 17th (main countries in an expanded conflict), the U.S. 1st, Russia 2nd (will support main countries in conflict), China 3rd, Turkey 8th (countries that could get involved, but less likely directly). The UK (6th) and France (11th) assisted in Iran’s strike on Israel in April this year, but it’s unclear if they would do the same or to what extent in a future attack given both country’s new majorities from last month’s elections that tend to be softer on foreign military adventurism.
Netanyahu’s push for an expanded war
Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu not only acted as the main provocateur to expanding war in the latest two assassinations, but he also threatened to preemptively strike Iran before Iran retaliates for those assassinations. Netanyahu believes Israel is already in an expanded war with Iran through Iran’s proxies in Lebanon and Yemen, calling all three the “Axis of Terror.”
Why does Netanyahu favors escalation?
*Israel cannot defeat Iran and escalation could draw in the U.S. to do the job. During Netanyahu’s recent visit to speak before the U.S. Congress, he repeated Iran is not just Israel’s enemy, but the U.S.’ He said Iran’s conflict with Israel and the U.S. is a clash of “barbarism vs. civilization,” rhetoric aimed at drawing American support for the U.S. to join a fight against Iran, a country that most military experts say Israel cannot defeat alone unless the U.S. joins in an expanded conflict. Netanyahu has been trying to engage the U.S. in a conflict with Iran for years.
*Netanyahu faces corruption charges. Israeli political experts say Netanyahu wants to keep the war in Gaza going and escalate it because he will likely be removed from office as soon as the war ends and be charged with corruption charges that he faced before the war started on October 7 last year. As Prime Minister, Netanyahu currently has immunity from these corruption charges. Seventy percent of Israelis want Netanyahu to step down and Israelis have been demonstrating in the streets in the thousands calling for a snap election.
Professor Nasr Vali of Johns Hopkins University, a former senior advisor at the U.S. State Department, says Israel is goading Iran into a war and we are witnessing a watershed moment in the world: “The international liberal order is truly dead if the upholder of its core values since World War II no longer really believes in those values or applies them extremely selectively.”
Level of retaliation matters
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, said, “Iran’s aerial operations against Israel could last three to four days,” he told the Jerusalem Post.
Military experts said Iran’s historic first-ever strike on Israel in April was carefully sign-posted and choreographed in concert with the U.S. with the deliberate intention of minimizing harm or damage. The understanding was that the U.S. would restrain Israel and ensure Iran was not attacked again. Iran notified the U.S. hours ahead of time before launching slow drones which took hours before reaching Israel.
Professor Mohammad Marandi, a member of the Iranian nuclear negotiations team, said “With hindsight, that [April] deterrence was not enough, and so this time around, the Iranians are going to have to hit harder. The Europeans and Americans refused to stop the Israelis from carrying out attacks, so Iran cannot depend on sane European leaders or sane American leaders.”
He adds, “Countries across the global south don’t want to see a global economic meltdown – because if there is a regional war, that’s what’s going to happen. If the Americans get involved, let’s say, and strike Iran, all those countries that host American bases in the Persian Gulf region, they will be [viewed as] hostile. All those oil and gas installations, they’ll be gone. In Iraq, the Americans will be overrun. The global economy will collapse,” Marandi told the Jerusalem Post.
Experts say Iran does not want escalation, but to establish future deterrence. It seeks to calculate enough of a retaliation in Israel for deterrence, but not to trigger widespread escalation. But they also say, any strike on Israel could be a risk because that’s what Netanyahu is wanting to further escalate with yet another possible attack on Iran after its retaliation.
Iranian experts also say a controlled retaliation, not all-out attack, is in Iran’s best interest in the war of public opinion. Currently, the world sees Israel as the aggressor and Iran would not want to suddenly make Israel the perceived victims to the world.
There also has been another scenario floated that Iran could forgo a retaliatory strike if Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza.
AIPAC influence
Americans against further escalation has accused Biden of sleepwalking the U.S. into a war that Americans do not want. They accuse AIPAC, the largest American Jewish lobby, of dictating foreign policy in the U.S. by pressuring Biden and Congress. Americans’ public opinion on Israel has vastly changed since the first months of the war from support then to now Israel losing all credibility as civilian deaths in Gaza keep rising.
Anti-war groups also claim there is a hush campaign strategy, saying Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is not talking much about the war because she doesn’t want to alienate before the elections voters who want a change of course in the Middle East or alienate those who agree with the current course. Political strategists say Biden was hurt by talking too frequently about the war and they don’t want Harris to make the same mistake.
What Americans and the Filipino community think of escalation
Contrary to a closer consensus that support Ukraine, polls show most Americans favor an end to the war in Gaza which they see as one-sided. Many view the killings of Gazan civilians with deep revulsion and horror.
Bernadette Baraquio, Honolulu, Media Design & Production, said “The U.S. should support peace and conflict resolution at all costs. If it continues to send money and weapons to defend Israel and deter more terroristic acts, it must also consider proportionate funding and resources to defend and protect innocent lives in Palestine and Gaza, while actively negotiating ceasefire proposals and calling for a release of all hostages.” She adds, “It is not in the best interest for America to engage in a full-military war on behalf of Israel. The U.S. must be committed to gathering Middle East leaders together and negotiating a consensus for immediate cease-fire resolutions while providing humanitarian aid to those suffering in the conflict. Working for peace, (instead of fighting violence with violence) is the only way all countries can win and find common ground.”
Baraquio says she is a strong proponent of peace-making activities in part because as a Catholic, she believes in Jesus’ teachings to spread peace, love and joy across the globe. She also said in certain cases of brutal terrorism, gross genocide, mass human rights violations, it is a right and responsible action to stand and defend innocents from horrific war crimes. She cites WWII as an example where war was justified against the atrocities carried out by Nazi fascists and Japanese imperialists. “However, I would not have supported the horrific decision to drop nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing thousands of innocent civilians just to prove global dominance,” Baraquio said.
Roland Casamina, CEO and President of a finance company in Honolulu, believes the U.S. should support Israel by sending weapons only and not financial aid, and “definitely no U.S troops on the ground.” However, he adds, “In the latest news where Iran may retaliate and if Russia and China get involved, then the U.S. should definitely send troops and unfortunately it becomes World War III.”
Casamina recognizes that Israel has lost support from most of the world including many in the U.S. because of civilian casualties. But he insists even if Israel does not comply with the U.S. government’s calls for a ceasefire, the U.S. should continue sending weapons to show support for its allies, “Not sending weapons definitely is not a choice,” he said. In the past, Casamina supported sending U.S. troops to Iraq. Now, he supports Ukraine against Russia.
Fred Magdalena, Ph.D., Honolulu, an academic, believes the U.S. should only supply Israel with money and weapons, but it should seek to influence Israel to stop the war with Hamas, “because the ordinary Palestinians have already suffered the brunt of that deadly war with untold damages.” He explains, “The war with Hamas has crossed the line. It’s now considered by pundits as a crime against humanity. It’s not Hamas that is paying the price of unprovoked attack against Israel, the civilians are especially women and children.” He believes Biden can still increase the pressure by threatening Netanyahu to stop the war without losing face. “Don’t provide Israel with diplomatic support and stop supplying military aid if Netanyahu continues with his intransigence.”
On the possibility of escalation, he said, “It’s not proper to take sides with Israel in a possible war with Iran or another Islamic nation.” Magdalena considers himself a pacifist and believes that war should be fought for defense only. “But defense must have its limit, if the enemy is already down and crippled. A third party with clout, for example, the U.S., should now exert all effort for the warring groups to come to the negotiating table and talk about the possibility of peace, no matter how temporary. As a Christian, I object to all wars. Violence only begets more violence. Nobody wins, everybody loses,” Magdalena said.
Patricio N. Abinales, Honolulu, Professor at the University of Hawai’i-Manoa, said the U.S government has committed itself to the interest of the Israeli state as far back as its formation. “It will have to respect this long-standing alliance and if you add to that the pressure of influential pro-Israel groups in the United States, then I am 100% sure that if the war in the Middle East escalates with Iran now openly supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, the U.S. will have to increase its presence, even send land troops to fight alongside the Israelis.”
He believes neither China nor Russia would join Iran to fight directly in an escalated war. “Both countries would send military assistance, but not troops. They would wait for Israel, Iran and the U.S. to weaken themselves and then slowly expand their spheres of influences.”
On justifying U.S. intervention, Abinales said, “Politically the U.S. will have to intervene because ironically, even if its leadership is now ultra-conservative and anti-Arab and despite its long history of oppressing the Palestinians, Israel is one of two liberal states in the region. It is surrounded by brutal autocrats (Assad in Syria, El Sisi of Egypt), monarchs (like Hussein of Jordan), and pro-Iran forces in southern Lebanon. Beyond Lebanon and Jordan are the religious regimes of Saudi Arabia and Iran. So, would you risk the collapse of Israel as a democratic state?”
Abinales believes there are just wars and just conflicts. An example, he said if the Philippines had a sufficient military capability, he would support a Philippines military liberation of the Spratley Islands from the Chinese.
Mark Castro, Makakilo, retiree, who is deeply concerned about war as a devout Catholic, said of a possible escalation with Iran, “Americans do not want to be locked into another costly, drawn-out war in the Middle East like what happened with Iraq and Afghanistan. I’m encouraged that most Americans do not agree with the direction the U.S. government is taking in supporting Israel. We’re already being stretched in our financial support for Israel in Gaza. Imagine how many more billions it would cost American taxpayers and maybe American lives if the U.S. directly engages with Iran.”
He says it’s not just about the money, but he sees Israel as an aggressor in the region. “It [Israel] is a pseudo democracy, meaning it’s a democracy for Israelis, but also an apartheid state in its occupied territories in Gaza and the West Bank. You cannot be a democracy and practice apartheid at the same time. That’s counterintuitive.” Castro said, “The U.S. has many allies besides Israel in the region like Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. They’re not democratic states, but allies, nonetheless. For the most part these allies are free market nations, which is more significant as the history of U.S relations with the world shows. The U.S. has supported monarchs – not just democracies — in the past like Mohammed Reza Pahlav, the Shah, last monarch of Iran in the 1970s and helped to overthrow democratically elected governments in Chile and Nicaragua. Let’s keep it real about democracy as being the reason for our support for Israel.
“This idea of needing to create an ‘Israel’ like what Biden said years ago, alluding that there is a need for an ally in that region — again, we have many there today. It also would cost the U.S. much less money to cultivate deeper relations with others like Egypt, for example, than Israel.” Castro said. “It’s not in the interest of Americans, or for the world, that we’re potentially committing to a greater war to support an out-of-control leader in Netanyahu who, frankly, is not behaving like an ally. Allies listen to each other, not act independently and take for granted historical ties to save the day, at great cost.”
About Author
+ There are no comments
Add yours