Hawaii Primary Election: The Winners Were Clear; Hawaii’s Voter Mandate Was Not Because of Super Low Voter Turnout

For all the serious talk, complaints and even angsts over Hawaii’s affordability and need for action, Hawaii did not show a sense of urgency based on the low voter turnout in the recent primary election. Just 33.1% — the statewide turnout reported after the third count – is a dismal turnout and sends a weak message to elected politicians that Hawaii residents can “talk up” urgency but are not willing to back up their sentiments with their votes.

Turnout data

About 274,093 ballots arrived by mail and only 6,349 were cast in person, confirming that voting by mail is now the preferred channel of Hawaii elections. The Democratic ballot accounted for 210,283 mailed votes, compared with 47,073 Republican mailed votes. In-person voting was more evenly divided: 2,862 Democratic ballots and 3,120 Republican ballots.

The losers of the primary election are the Hawaii eligible voters who did not show up to cast their votes. With 846,543 registered voters and some 280,000 ballots counted at the third stage printout, nearly two out of every three registered voters did not participate.

It’s reasonable to suggest that the results of the election do not demonstrate broad public engagement going into the November general election, even as it’s highly likely that the Democrats who won in the Primary will go on to win in the General.

Statewide voter participation remained among the lowest primary levels of this century.

On the positive side, kudos to all who took the time to vote and helped to make our democratic process stronger.

Messages sent to politicians

The question begs for those who did not vote, which is it – 1) Hawaii residents are sufficiently content that they did not bother to go out to vote or 2) that they believe their vote doesn’t matter? It’s certainly easier to vote in Hawaii than many parts of the mainland where mail-in voting is limited.

Just by looking at the data, the result of incumbency wins over new challengers, it suggests the first point that Hawaii is for stability and the status quo. It’s rare in Hawaii for incumbents to be defeated, especially in congressional races. However, based on polls and informal talks at gatherings prior to the Primary, many and perhaps a majority of Hawaii residents expressed a desire for change but for whatever reason didn’t show up when it matters. Change is not necessarily meant in the way of replacing a candidate, but the areas of focus should change.

The messages sent to politicians are arguably all of the above: Hawaii residents want stability because there so many special features of Hawaii-living that residents want retained; there is also a large contingency desiring change and that the low-voter turnout suggests something else like apathy or laziness besides a rejection to shake things up.

Race in the 1st Congressional District

The most revealing contest this primary election indicating a desire for change was the 1st Congressional District. Incumbent Ed Case defeated state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole 58.5% to 37.4% (as of third count), a margin of 22,939 votes. It was a strong victory for Case and the votes for Keohokalole weren’t necessarily against Case being an inefficient congressman, but those voters wanted more change.

The challenger framed the race as a test of whether a younger, more progressive voice could dislodge a senior incumbent. In a campaign message, Keohokalole said, “The solutions we’ve been getting from Ed Case are not good enough. Families like mine are being priced out of our communities.” Case countered that seniority and a seat on the Appropriations Committee gave Hawaii leverage in Washington. Voters chose continuity, but more than one-third of Democratic participants backed the challenger — a substantial bloc that Case cannot and should not dismiss.

Case has been doing well in securing federal funds for Hawaii. Congratulations on his primary win. But he also should be aware of the national movement within the Democratic Party and the concerns as expressed by Keohokalole. And Keohokalole deserves credit for articulating well some of those progressive concerns are like affordability, generational change and the direction of the Democratic Party.

As for outreach to Hawaii’s Filipino community, Case each election cycle and in non-election years has done the work. There’s no data available as to how Case did this election in garnering Hawaii’s Filipino vote, but those in the Filipino community could speculate that he did well.

Any candidate running for statewide or large office districts like for congress or U.S. Senate should be aware that reaching out to grassroots and ethnic grassroots communities are important to their success. And politicians who’ve been in office for a while cannot ignore large ethnic groups then suddenly expect their support when they seek higher office.

The overall assessment of this primary election is that participation was anemic. Politicians should not look at their victory as a green light for the status quo because too many eligible voters stayed home. The goal now is to broaden the electorate and earn the confidence of those who stayed home. If you’re winning with a high voter turnout, that’s a true sign of approval from Hawaii residents. This did not happen.