Pressure is mounting for President Joe Biden as a growing chorus of fellow Democrat party-power brokers, voters and donors are calling on him to step down from the presidential race.
The situation is fast-paced and fluid. Some politicos are predicting Biden could exit the race anytime this week July 15-20 as the window closes to front a replacement candidate before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago scheduled for August 19-22. The general election is on November 5, about four months away for Biden or his replacement to score a comeback victory.
As of this Sunday, July 14, the president has said he has no intention of stepping back from his bid for a second term — even though some in his party have asked him to reconsider.
Biden told Democratic lawmakers that he had received 87% of the votes in the primaries and had almost 3,900 delegates. “I’m the nominee of this party because 14 million Democrats like you voted for me in the primaries,” he said during a rally in Detroit on Friday July 13.
A defiant Biden said, “You made me the nominee. No one else. Not the press, not the pundits, not the insiders, not the donors. And I’m not going anywhere.”
There has been increasing speculation about the president’s mental health due to his lethargic and oftentimes confusing debate-showing on June 28 that had political analysts on mainstream media reporting widespread panic among donors. Reporters said donors were calling in to express their uncertainty that Biden could win in the general and floated the idea of a replacement candidate.
Biden Supporters On Monday, July 9, Biden issued a timely statement before Congress reconvened affirming that he was staying in the race. The next day as lawmakers returned from break, in the morning before holding caucus to hear from colleagues, the Democratic establishment – Senate President Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi – all indicated that they were sticking with Biden in whatever he decides.
Leaders from the most powerful Democratic caucuses — Rep. James Clyburn of the Black Caucus and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of the Progressive Caucus – both offered their strong support for Biden.
“The conversation should focus on the record of this administration … and let Joe Biden continue to make his own decisions about the future,” Clyburn said. “If he decides to change his mind later on, then we will respond to that.”
Ocasio-Cortez told Capitol reporters, “Joe Biden is our nominee, he is not leaving this race, he is in this race, and I support him.”
Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Gavin Newsom of California have been defending Biden’s candidacy since the night of the presidential debate.
“One thing we know about our president, Joe Biden, he is a fighter, and he is the first to say, ‘When you get knocked down, you get right back up,’’’ Harris said. “So, we will continue to fight. We will continue to organize. And in November, we will win,” said Harris while addressing a conference of Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander voters in Philadelphia.
In the spin room following the debate, when asked about a rumbling of Democrats possibly open to replacing Biden as the party’s nominee, Newsom said “I will never turn my back on President Biden. I don’t know a Democrat in my party that would do so.”
Those calling for Biden to step down As of Friday July 12, a small but growing number of Democratic members of Congress — about 20 — have publicly called on the President to withdraw from the race, including Hawaii Rep Ed Case (District 1).
“Difficult times and realities require difficult decisions,” Case wrote in a statement released on July 11. “This is one of those times, realities and decisions. My guidepost is what is the best way forward for our country. I do not believe President Biden should continue his candidacy for re-election as President. This has nothing to do with his character and record. If it did, there would be no decision to make.”
The other Hawaii delegation to Congress had not issued statements on Biden as of Sunday, July 14.
The New York Times reports that Democratic donors froze a staggering $90 in donations destined for Biden, saying it would not be released as long as Biden is in the race.
Actor and major Biden donor and fundraiser George Clooney added his voice to calls for Biden to leave the presidential race. Just weeks ago, Clooney co-headlined a fundraiser that brought in for the Biden campaign a record single-night haul of $30 million.
Clooney said in a New York Times opinion piece that he loves Biden, but the party would lose the presidential race as well as any control in Congress with him as the nominee.
“This isn’t only my opinion; this is the opinion of every senator and congress member and governor that I’ve spoken with in private,” wrote Clooney.
Capitol reporters say there are many lawmakers on the Hill who have strong reservations of Biden’s candidacy but have not come forward, confirming Clooney’s statement alluding to widespread opposition to Biden running for reelection.
The most vocal voices calling for Biden to step have come from editorial boards of media across the nation, pundits and democratic strategists.
Democratic strategist James Carville believes Biden will “make the right decision” – and drop out of the race. He said, “50 million people saw that so-called debate. Everybody knows what’s going on here. … We’ve seen our parents go through it, our grandparents, our aunts and uncles and neighbors and relatives. This is all a matter of time. I’m just telling you it’s inevitable,” the strategist told Cuomo. “He will come to the conclusion. People will get the message to him. He will understand. His family will understand. They’ll pray on it, and they’ll make the right decision.”
The only traditionally influential group in the Democratic party that has yet to voice a public opinion on Biden staying in or not is organized labor.
What the polls and Biden approval ratings say After a week ago from saying it would take the “Lord Almighty” for him to drop out of the race, in a Q&A segment during the NATO summit press conference held on July 11, the 81-year-old president said he would leave the 2024 race for the White House if polls showed there was “no way” he could win.
But politicos say Biden is dismissive of his poor polling, and neither his closest advisors believe in his bad poll numbers. In a CNN interview, confronted with his lingering bad poll numbers, Biden said “The polling data has been wrong all along. How many – you guys do a poll at CNN. How many folks you have to call to get one response?”
NATIONAL POLLS. While Biden is behind within the margin of error in a few credible national polls like Marist College, Ipsos, Emerson and Morning Consult, political experts say those national polls don’t matter as much as or at all compared to those of battleground states where Biden trails in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They also say national polls have a 5-7% Electoral bias that is not factored in the poll or margin of error, meaning that in order for a candidate to truly be ahead, that candidate must be leading at least by 5-7%.
BATTLEGROUND STATES POLLS. In the latest NYT July 13 poll of seven battleground states (North Carolina included) the results show: Wisconsin, Trump up 48%-45%; Michigan, Trump up 47%-45%; Pennsylvania, Trump up 48%-44%; Arizona, Trump up 48%-43%; Georgia, Trump up 49%-43%; Nevada, Trump up 49%-43% and North Carolina, Trump up 48%-43%. Pollsters say the winner of the 2024 election would likely have to win four of these swing states.
Ex-Obama advisor and CNN political analyst David Axelrod said, “He [Biden] really needs a royal flush to win this race. The president’s been behind for 10 months, consistently in this data. [According to] deeper data that the analytics people look at, he is now behind in all the battleground states and in some cases, well behind, beyond the margin of error.”
Axelrod adds, “So, yes, of course he can win, anyone can win. But given the stakes, and I think this is what those Democratic officials are thinking, given the stakes, the fact that he can win is not a persuasive argument. The question is: what are the odds that he would win, and would we have a better chance with someone else? That’s the question everybody is pondering.”
APPROVAL RATING NUMBERS. Analysts say arguably the most revealing data that Biden will lose is in his approval rating. They say no incumbent president with a low approval rating below 40% has ever won reelection. In reputable polls from YouGov, Ipsos, Emerson College, Redfield & Wilton Strategies and Gallup – all of them show Biden’s current approval rating is under 40%.
Reviewing Gallup polling of past presidents seeking reelection in the month of June on election year, about this time, here were the approval ratings of presidents who won reelection: Barack Obama 46%, George W. Bush 49%, Bill Clinton 55% and Ronald Reagan 54%. The approval ratings for presidents who lost reelection in the same period were Donald Trump 39%, George H.W. Bush 37% and Jimmy Carter 34%. Gallup’s June 2024 approval rating for Biden is 38%, well below presidents who won reelection, and even lower than Trump’s in June 2020.
Hawaii and Filipino community’s opinion of Biden staying in the race and the issues Besides U.S. Rep Case, three former Govs. John Waihee, Ben Cayetano, and Neil Abercrombie called for Biden to withdraw from the race. The governors wrote in a joint statement, “What is now known as The Debate was a moment of truth—a moment not of revelation but rather confirmation of what has been apparent for months—The President’s obvious physical decline and increasing difficulty in communicating clearly and cogently.”
Gov. Josh Green has appeared on CNN stating his support for Biden. Green, a medical doctor, said he believes Biden was ill and exhausted from traveling to Europe before the televised debate.
Federico Magdalena, Ph.D., of the Asian Studies Program and Center for Philippine Studies at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, said he was a Biden supporter in his first run at the presidency. “I used to support Biden, but not anymore. He is unfit to serve a second term. Biden should reconsider running for president. His health is frail and leads him in making indecisive actions.”
He said, “Trump looks like the winning guy based on the surveys. I think Biden can no longer instill confidence among Democrats, many of whom started junking him. His speaking ability is no longer as sharp as before. The more he opens his mouth, the more he embarrasses himself before an audience. I cannot blame anyone who says Biden is down, though he says nobody has told him that he’s losing the race. I don’t think he can beat the polls. There are reporting each day of his deteriorating performance.”
Biden on the issues, Magdalena said, “He has put in place a better alternative program than the Obamacare. If he institutes more stimulus support and other ameliorative measures for the poor Americans, he may earn their confidence and votes. On foreign policy, he should stop heavy spending of taxpayers’ money to the Ukraine war and the Israeli-Hamas conflict of extermination and give Netanyahu a final warning to stop the brutal war against Palestinians who have already suffered enough.”
Asked if another Democratic candidate comes forward to challenge Biden, would you be open to support that candidate, Magdalena said, “It depends on who replaces Biden. Harris is a weak leader who cannot inspire the average American.”
Unlike Magdalena who said his support for a Democratic candidate depends on who would replace Biden, Nieva Elizaga, Honolulu, healthcare administrator, said she will support anyone who runs against Trump.
A registered voter, Elizaga also supported Biden in his first run for president. She said of Biden on the issues, “Biden has been good for the country. The economy has been doing great, unemployment is down, the crumbling infrastructures are being fixed, Medicare and Medicaid are protected for now.”
She adds, “I would support any decision as to whether he steps out of the campaign or stay. The country would be more stable under the Democrats. Trump has publicly said he will be a dictator on day one and even in that short time he can wreak havoc to our democracy. His presidency will be focused on retaliation against his perceived enemies. I sincerely hope the American voters will make the right decision.”
Judy Ilar, Oahu resident, political Independent, is not a Biden supporter and believes all his policies have failed the American people. “I think it’s over for Biden. I have no doubt that the Democrats want to plead the 25th Amendment on Biden and put Michelle Obama in [to replace him].”
On the issues, she said, “Interest rates during Trump was less than 3%. Biden’s presidency doubled the interest rate. On immigration, allowing an open border endangers our nation. Open borders also put innocent lives at risk for human and child trafficking. Also, there was no war during President Trump. There are wars with Biden and China is causing unrest in Asia. The Biden administration is spending billions of dollars towards these wars while Maui fire victims received a one-time $700.
Reynaldo Cordero, Kalihi, retired security guard, Republican, said Biden would lose in the general election. “He’s not mentally fit. Maybe if another candidate takes his place, that person might have a better chance. I want Biden to stay in the race so Trump is guaranteed to win.” On the issues, Cordero said, “Biden spends too much on wars. All he talks about is Trump is bad for the country, but he’s not running on anything else. What are his plans? Not much is being said. It’s only about giving away American tax dollars to foreign countries.”
Vilma Salvador, Kapolei, Democrat, also voted for Biden in 2020 but wants him to step down. “I cannot vote for Biden because of his complicity in Israel’s destruction on Gaza, and not because of his diminishing mental fitness. I would never vote for Trump and was intending to vote for a third-party candidate. But if Biden is replaced, I can in good conscious support the Democratic Party again, as I always do.”
She adds, “Outside of the war, Biden has done things that I like. He delivered on boosting infrastructure. He’s done what no president has done in beating Big Pharma on lowering prescription drug prices. He’s protecting Medicare and Social Security. But he hasn’t done enough on inflation and securing our southern border.”
Devina Telan Robillard, Kailua, retired nurse educator, Democrat also has been a Biden supporter over the years. But she is conflicted about his second run. “Perception is important. At 70, I’m right there in physical and mental state like Biden. I feel diminished in strength and sharpness, but experience comes with age and can be just as important as strength. I am afraid that most of our electorate may not recognize this asset and Trump will win. I am conflicted about him stepping down. But for the sake of winning our cause, he should. At the same time, I know he still has what it takes [to lead our nation].
Robillard told the Chronicle she would support anyone against Trump. On the issues, she said, “Bidenomics is working. Inflation is down. On foreign policy, this is Biden’s best suit, but I am conflicted with the Israel-Palestine issue. It has been a problem plaguing us since the aftermath of WWII and it will not go away easily. As a woman, reproductive rights are very important to me. Women should vote for control over their own body and mind.
What Biden must do if he stays in the race Mainstream media pundits are mostly in consensus that going forward Biden must ramp up his visibility and schedule more town halls, rallies and do more unscripted speeches. In the Q&A segment of the NATO Summit presser, Biden did a few gaffes like mistakenly calling Vice President Harris, Vice President Trump. But most pundits say that performance was good enough to buy Biden more time. And the longer he is able to be the front man with the support he currently has from key backers, the more likely it would be logistically impossible to replace him.
Democratic strategist also say Biden needs to offer at least one major policy for Democrats to get excited about besides fearmongering of a possible Trump dictatorship. During Obama’s reelection campaign, he promised to defend Obamacare, which was then still tenuous, and Republicans had vowed to undo. Bill Clinton promised Universal Healthcare even though was not able to deliver it. Still, historians say it got Democrats excited enough to go to the polls for his reelection. Politicos say Biden is missing that one major incentivizing policy.
Democratic strategist Carville said Biden is slipping among two key traditionally strong Democratic groups – Black and young voters. He mentions a policy that would specifically get these two sectors, along with Hispanics, excited about is raising the federal minimum wage because these groups are economically struggling and believe their financial situation hasn’t changed for the better in the last four years. Labor unions, another major sector of the Democratic Party coalition, also have been calling for a federal minimum wage increase.
Increasing confidence among voters in Biden’s mental fitness and offering a major policy carrot would go a long way for Biden. Two areas politicos say Biden is on the right track are promising to strengthen reproductive rights, specifically in protecting access to the abortion pill, and protecting the nation’s democracy.
Politicos also say Biden must broker a ceasefire in the Middle East as soon as possible, before universities and colleges resume classes in the Fall. If the war on Gaza persists into the Fall and students are protesting nationwide as they did in the Spring, the optics alone would deflate any late gains Biden would have mustered, if any, politicos say.
Pundits believe It’s likely that efforts to replace Biden will continue for weeks and begin to fizzle each week leading into the Democratic National Convention. After the Convention, the Democratic Party will unite and support whoever their representative is. But unless Biden does a complete makeover, offer a major policy incentive and end the war, he would still need as Axelrod says, a royal flush to win.
Assassination attempt on Trump’s possible impact The July 13 assassination attempt on Trump could further move the needle on polls in favor of Trump. The optics of Trump narrowly escaping death by inches, pumping his fist in defiance, and saying “Fight, Fight” repeatedly is as dramatic a scene straight out of a movie. It also feeds into the narrative Trump has been pushing – that he’s the persecuted ex-president. Will it draw in sympathy votes among independents? No one knows what’s to come in the aftermath of the shooting, nor of the other quake-moving pieces since June 28. The 2024 election saga continues.
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