by Edwin Quinabo
The exchange of missiles has ended for now. But will the ceasefire between Israel and Iran last? Has the U.S. averted another protracted “forever war” in the Middle East? Politicos say that further military action is dependent on Iran’s nuclear capability that’s still unclear after Trump’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites.
At a White House news conference on June 27 when reporters asked about the possibility of new bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, President Donald Trump said, “Sure, without a question, absolutely.”
The next step the president said he wants is for inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency or another respected source to be able to inspect Iran’s nuclear sites. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi indicated that Tehran may reject any request by the head of the agency for visits to Iranian nuclear sites. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran will not sit down for nuclear talks with the U.S. in the coming days.
Politicos say a stalemate on inspection alone could collapse a precarious ceasefire which has Americans anxious that fighting could resume at any moment.
Timeline
*June 13, 2025. War breaks out between Israel and Iran. Israel attacks nuclear sites in Iran saying that it had no choice but to bomb because Iran was close to building nuclear weapons. Iran, which has claimed that it has been operating an entirely peaceful nuclear program only for civilian purposes – launches a counter strike sending missiles into Israel. Israel’s attack comes as a surprise amid ongoing negotiations by multiple parties including the U.S.
*June 21, 2025. Previously only supplying weapons to Israel, the U.S. enters the conflict directly. Called Operation Midnight Hammer, U.S. military forces hit Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan using long-range bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles.
*June 22, 2025. Trump claims the operation was successful. “All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. Congratulations to our great American Warriors. There is not another military in the World that could have done this,” he said.
*June 23, 2025. Iran retaliates the U.S.’ attack, launching ballistic missiles toward the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The attack is seen as symbolic, a “saving face” measure only to show that Iran has responded, military strategists say. Trump saw the assault as a signal of de-escalation rather than provocation. Tehran had informed both Qatari and U.S. officials in advance of the attack, allowing the base to be evacuated and personnel to shelter in bunkers. Trump then says, “It’s time for peace.”
*June 24, 2025. Trump announces an Israel-Iran ceasefire deal, calling the agreement a show of ‘stamina, courage and intelligence’ that prevented a wider regional war. “CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE…the War will be considered, ENDED!” Trump posted on Truth Social. Confusion over the ceasefire spread as both Israel and Iran continued to launch missiles after the time the ceasefire was set to begin. Further, Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran had not agreed to a cessation of hostilities, but it would halt further actions if Israel ceased.
Polls show majority of Americans do not support bombing Iran
Various polls show Americans disapprove of Trump’s decision to bomb Iran. A CNN poll conducted by SSRRS after the strikes show Americans disapprove of the US strikes, 56% to 46%. And 60% are worried that the strikes will increase the threat to the U.S.
Polls before the attacks: 1) Economist/YouGov, 60% say the U.S. military should not get directly involved, 56% favored negotiations; 2) Washington Post, majority of respondents opposed air strikes; 3) USA Today, overwhelming response saying the U.S. should not get involved in the war.
Employ diplomacy over conflict
Teresita Bernales, Kailua, former consultant with the U.S. State Department, said “Ultimately, after the strikes, Trump shifted to pushing for a ceasefire, arguing that the U.S. had achieved its immediate objectives and should avoid deeper military entanglement. In the end, the U.S. refrained from further escalation, and a fragile ceasefire was reached, but the episode underscored the volatility of U.S. policy and the ongoing risk of a larger conflict.”
She explains, “Whether the U.S. should be involved in another extended Middle East conflict remains deeply divisive. Many experts and a significant segment of the public are wary of repeating past mistakes, given the human, financial, and geopolitical costs of such wars. The prevailing sentiment among critics is that military intervention should be a last resort, and that diplomatic solutions, however difficult, are preferable to open-ended warfare,” Bernales said.
As someone who has been involved in diplomatic work, Bernales insists, “We need to employ diplomacy. I know that diplomacy has a far more reaching effect to maintain world peace.”
12-day war casualties
Twenty-five Israelis were killed and some 2,400 were wounded during the 12-day war, according to Israeli estimates; while Iranian casualties reported ranging from 639 to over 900 dead, and thousands more injured, Iran’s Health Ministry said. No Americans were harmed.
“Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to deliver peace within 24 hours and extricate the U.S. from ‘endless wars.’ However, the recent escalation with Iran, as well as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has led critics to argue that these promises have not been fulfilled. While Trump did help broker a ceasefire [along with Qatar] between Israel and Iran after the strikes, the fact remains that he authorized major military action, risking a broader war in the region,” Bernales said.
Questioning Trump’s unilateral war powers
Attempts in Congress are being made to require the president get permission from the legislative branch should there be a need for future military conflict. Hawaii’s congressional delegation questioned Trump’s decision to bomb Iran and his unilateral authority to do it.
U.S. Rep Ed Case have cosponsored a Congressional resolution with the senior members of the House Committees on Intelligence, Armed Services and Foreign Affairs that expressly directs the President to cease military hostilities against Iran, except where necessary to prevent imminent attack, unless authorized by Congress.
Case told the Hawaii Filipino Chronicle, “Iran under its current leadership is our enemy and our national defense requires that Iran never gain a nuclear weapon. But that doesn’t mean our President can do whatever he wants whenever and however he wants. Our Constitution is clear that the U.S. Congress has the sole power to declare war. The War Powers Act of 1973 states when and under what circumstances the President must consult with or gain the authorization of Congress to commence and continue military hostilities. In denying Iran a nuclear weapon and otherwise addressing its malign actions against our country and our friends, we should exhaust diplomatic efforts but cannot rule out military action. But the very serious decision to commence and continue military hostilities against another country cannot and should not be made by this or any other President alone.”
Sen Brian Schatz, who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement “We’ve all seen what happens when the United States gets dragged into an endless war in the Middle East — lives lost, trillions spent and no lasting peace or security. We cannot continue to repeat the mistakes of the past.” He described the Iran strikes as “an escalation that puts American lives at risk and threatens our national security.”
Sen. Mazie Hirono said a vast majority of Americans oppose another endless conflict in the Middle East. Hirono and U.S. Rep Jill Tokuda challenged the constitutionality of Trump’s attacks without congressional approval.
Attorney Sergio J. Alcubilla III, Director of Community Engagement, ACLU of Hawai‘i said “While the ACLU does not take a position on whether or not military force should have been used against Iran, for decades the organization has been steadfast in insisting that decisions on whether to use military force require Congress’s specific, advance authorization. Congress has exclusive authority under the Constitution to decide whether the President may use military force.”
ACLU of Hawai‘I Executive Director, Salmah Y. Rizvi stated, “When a U.S. President unilaterally initiates hostilities against a sovereign nation, such as Trump did with Iran, it violates Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution which vests the power in Congress to declare war. This not only erodes the separation of powers, but it also deprives Americans of a fundamental civil liberty: the right to live in peace, free from wars waged without their consent.”
On June 27, after the bombings and declared ceasefire, the U.S. Senate unsuccessfully voted (47-53) against curbing President Trump’s use of military force. The resolution, introduced by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Virginia), would have required a congressional vote before using the military against Iran again. Two similar war-powers measures are before Congress disputing between who holds the keys to a U.S. attack on another country, the legislative or executive branches.
“I pray the cease-fire continues but I fear we’re going to be back here on this floor,” Kaine said. “War is too big an issue to allow one person to make the decision that sends our sons and daughters into harm’s way.” Kaine told NBC News he’s “nervous” that the United States could make a mistake similar to the one it made with the Iraq War. “In Iraq, we were misled into the war with intelligence about the Iraqi WMD [weapons of mass destruction] program that proved not to be accurate. And I’m very, very concerned about that here,” Kaine said.
Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Oregon, said wars are easy to start but often hard to end. “Let’s be clear: the threat was not imminent,” Merkley said. “The administration instead acted precipitously, putting American lives at risk.”
Trump allies on the Hill applauded Trump’s Iran attacks claiming they have made the world safer. Vice President JD Vance said on Fox News, “Now Iran is incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because we destroyed it. This could be a new dawn of an economic age of prosperity — for our Gulf allies, for us, for the Israelis, for everybody.”
No wars in the Middle East, yes to prioritizing domestic needs
There’s been a growing movement on both the political right, left and among independents that demands the U.S. stop fighting wars on behalf of Israel. Instead, they prefer longstanding domestic problems to be addressed where taxpayers’ money is better spent.
Myrna Lim, a San Francisco based attorney and Television Producer for San Francisco Public Access, told the Hawaii Filipino Chronicle, “President Trump should not bomb Iran at the behest of Israel and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) lobby. Israel and AIPAC have shaped U.S. foreign policies for decades, according to Professor Jeffrey Sachs, advisor to the United Nations and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University.”
Lim is critical of the magnitude of military spending, “The U.S. spends approximately $1.2 trillion per year on the military, CIA, intelligence, Homeland Security, military aid to countries like Israel and Ukraine. Instead of alleviating poverty, the government creates the conditions for poor to become poorer and the rich get richer.”
She believes the U.S. is already in a recession and calls for policies to help American instead of engaging in war. “Trump should focus on improving the economy and helping better American lives. Millions of Americans are losing their jobs, while the rest of working people live paycheck to paycheck buried in debts like credit cards to make ends meet.”
Alfred Cabuslay, Kapolei, said “It’s not just war that could hurt Americans financially. Some Hawaii families could lose their Medicaid and food stamps. Trump could go hard on a tariff war. Americans are scared of what’s to come. There’s uncertainty coming at all directions and this attack on Iran only adds to the fear and chaos.” Cabuslay voted for Trump, but asserts, “We voted for peace, stability and for prices to come down which Trump promised. He’s doing the complete opposite. We didn’t vote for all this mess.”
Closing the Strait of Hormuz
Geopolitical experts say if war is resumed and escalates, the situation could get far worse. They say Iran’s greatest weapon was threatened but not used – which would have been closing the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point of a major oil transportation route, that ferry around 20% of the world’s oil and gas flow. Experts say if Iran had blocked the Strait, energy prices would soar and disrupt the world economy, reaccelerating inflation.
“Any closure—whether temporary or prolonged—would likely cause a sharp increase in oil prices, with ripple effects on gas prices, utilities, groceries, and the broader global economy. During the recent crisis, oil prices surged to five-month highs after the U.S. strikes on Iran, only to fall back as it became clear that Iran would not immediately retaliate by closing the Strait,” Bernales said.
Alcubilla said the attack on Iran is even more puzzling as the economic impact would be felt across the United States at a time when so many are already struggling economically, even more so here in Hawaii. “If we continue down this path of escalation, the military industrial complex along with big oil, will reap the rewards while another generation of our youth pay the price of another forever war. With our over-dependence on tourism and the military, Hawaii’s economy is always at risk when factors past its shores threaten to raise our already high cost of living,” he said.
The threat of closing this water passageway alarmed Trump that he asked China to intervene and convince Iran to not restrict passage at the Strait. Geopolitical experts say Iran could resort to choking off only oil tankers from specific countries and reduce harming its own oil interests and their allies while punishing the U.S. and western countries who worked against it.
Was Trump’s military operation a success?
Critics say Trump’s claim that Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been “completely and totally obliterated” is questionable and that his victory declaration could be premature and reminiscent of former President George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” speech. That controversial speech was made on May 1, 2003, signaling an end to conflict but the Iraq war extended until 2011.
Trump’s own chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said it was “way too early” to know the full damage of the strikes but affirmed that all three sites bombed sustained “severe damage and destruction.”
The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi, told French broadcaster RFI, “strikes at Iranian nuclear facilities is very, very, very considerable” and that he can only assume the centrifuges are not operational. But he adds, “I think annihilated is too much, but it suffered enormous damage.”
Iranian officials said they “didn’t suffer a major blow because the materials had already been taken out.”
About Author
+ There are no comments
Add yours